His recent scoring, weighting newer games more (the simple-average baseline).
18.3
role & efficiency (own history)
His expected opportunities (targets, carries, pass attempts) times points per opportunity, both shrunk toward league norms so a few big games don't over-count.
-0.9
team context
His share of the team's offense, applied to how much offense his team is expected to have.
-0.3
betting lines: team volume
Sportsbook game total and spread: teams expected to score more run more plays.
+0.2
efficiency calibration
A per-position correction fitted on past seasons so efficiency isn't systematically too high or low.
-0.6
betting lines: scoring environment
In games the market expects to be high-scoring, each target and carry is worth more.
+1.6
median adjustment
Converts the average outcome into the median. Fantasy scores are skewed (a few huge weeks), so the typical week sits below the average.