His recent scoring, weighting newer games more (the simple-average baseline).
23.1
role & efficiency (own history)
His expected opportunities (targets, carries, pass attempts) times points per opportunity, both shrunk toward league norms so a few big games don't over-count.
-2.2
team context
His share of the team's offense, applied to how much offense his team is expected to have.
-0.1
betting lines: team volume
Sportsbook game total and spread: teams expected to score more run more plays.
-0.2
efficiency calibration
A per-position correction fitted on past seasons so efficiency isn't systematically too high or low.
-0.6
betting lines: scoring environment
In games the market expects to be high-scoring, each target and carry is worth more.
0.0
median adjustment
Converts the average outcome into the median. Fantasy scores are skewed (a few huge weeks), so the typical week sits below the average.